adobe1It’s the most digital time of the year for retailers, with the upcoming holiday season in full swing! But how exactly will online retail sales pan out this year?

According to Adobe’s online shopping predictions for the 2019 holiday season, online sales will increase by 14.1% to USD$143.6 billion while total retail will grow by 4%. During the holiday season, 1 in every 5 dollars will be spent during Cyber Week, generating an estimated amount of $29 billion of total online revenue this season. Cyber Monday will also set the record for the largest online sales day of the year, bagging $9.4 billion in revenue. Adobe predicts further that 1 out of 5 dollars this holiday season will be spent during Cyber Week – between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday – generating $29 billion (or 20%) of total online revenue this season. Adobe predicts Cyber Monday to set new records as the largest and fastest growing online shopping day of the year, with $9.4 billion in sales, an 18.9% increase year over year.

The most anticipated gifts of the holiday season include game consoles such as Nintendo Switch Lite and SEGA Genesis Mini, and the most popular video games are expected to include Pokémon Shield/Sword, Jedi Fallen Order and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.

Additional predictions include:

  • Best days for deals: Black Friday will be the day to pick up the best discounts on appliances (discounted by 9%) and sporting goods (6%). December 1st will be the key deal day for toys (32%) and computers (18%). Cyber Monday (December 2nd) will see the deepest discounts on TVs (19%) while furniture & bedding (10%) and tools & home improvement items (6 percent) will be the categories offering the best savings on December 3rd. December 27th is the day to wait for electronics bargains, offering up massive savings of 27%.
  • A shopping mall in your pocket: With retailers optimizing for mobile, online spend on smartphones will increase from 30 to 47 cents per minute, a 63% jump since 2016. Consumers will continue to use desktops to make research-heavy purchases like furniture, electronics and appliances, resulting in a 28% higher AOV than on smartphones.
  • A BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) bonanza: BOPIS orders have experienced strong growth, with 39% more BOPIS orders expected to be placed this year compared to 2018. BOPIS share of revenue is anticipated to double during the week before Christmas as panic buying sets in. Thirty-seven percent of consumers said they are planning to use BOPIS this season while 82% of BOPIS patrons say they will likely shop for additional items when picking up their online order.
  • Larger retailers win the retail battle: While online giants will see revenue increase by 65%, smaller retailers will only enjoy a 35% boost. Large retailers (annual online revenue of over $1B) will be the clear winners on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with smaller retailers (less than $50M annual online revenue) failing to drive strong online traction despite the growing awareness of Small Business Saturday. Additionally, large retailers will benefit from higher conversion rates, with customers visiting their sites 32% more likely to convert versus smaller retailers (23%).
  • Mad for ads: 50% of consumers state that ads during the holiday shopping season impact their purchasing decisions while email continues to be the most preferred way to get an offer while holiday shopping. Smartphone visits to retail sites from social media have tripled in the past three years from 4% to 11%. However, visits coming from social platforms result in lower conversions compared to other channels like search or email. (Source: Adobe)

For more information on Adobe Holiday Shopping Predictions 2019, please refer to the blog post.