The breadth of data that Adobe analyzes to identify retail insights from the billions of data points that flow through Adobe Marketing Cloud allowed the company to successfully predict consumer spending within 2% in previous years, the most accurate in the industry.
Now Adobe released its 2016 Digital Insights Shopping Predictions for the upcoming holiday season, based on an analysis of 55 million product SKUs and aggregated and anonymous data of more than one trillion visits to 4,500 retail websites.
According to its findings, the company expects consumers shopping much earlier in the season compared to previous years; the extended season will lead to an 11% ($9.1 billion) increase in online sales to a total of US$91.6 billion; and large retailers are expected to account for the bulk of the growth, with an average growth rate of 16.6% compared to smaller retailers at 7%.
Further key highlights from Adobe Digital Insights (ADI) include:
- Cyber Monday expected to be the largest online shopping day of all time, generating $3.36 billion in sales with 9.4% growth;
- Sales on Thanksgiving Day will increase 15.6% YoY to $2 billion, but not reach the 25% YoY increase of 2015;
- Black Friday will grow 11.3% YoY (14.3% in 2015) to $3.05 billion;
- For the average retailer, 5% of consumers are expected to drive 35% ($38.5 billion) of all online sales while 1% of product SKUs will account for 74% of sales;
- For the first time, mobile devices will exceed desktops in shopping visits at 53% versus 47% respectively
Specific findings related to the Singapore market show that:
- Consumer budgets are tight and the savvy shopper prefers online shopping due to the higher likelihood of finding good deals and bargains;
- Fewer last-minute shopping rushes are imminent as respondents are now shopping slightly earlier in November, suggesting that marketers should time outreach to these early birds accordingly;
- Consumers report visiting an average of 3-5 sites before making a purchase, offering marketers a critical chance to target these potential customers once more and bringing them back on-site via remarketing;
- Almost half of Singaporean millennials (49%) surveyed value experiences more than material goods, with 41% of all local consumers surveyed also echoing this preference;
- Mobile shopping is king as consumers praise retailers for better optimizing their sites for mobile browsing, allowing them to shop on the go with their hectic schedules.
Furthermore, Adobe predicts that consumers who price shop will be able to save an average of 20% by shopping for the same products across online retailers. To no surprise, the most desired gift items this season are expected to be VR devices (Oculus, PlayStation VR and HTC Vive), Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels and Frozen toys, as well as Google Home and Amazon Echo.
Lower prices and free shipping remain the primary reasons people shop online, although convenience is on the rise. Lastly, consumers indicate that price, familiarity with brands, and product reviews are the top influencers of a major purchase. In addition, the report reveals that customers are most likely to find the best deals through display advertising (29%), followed by social media (14%) and email (13%), and 40% of consumers indicate email is the best way to reach them on a mobile device while they are shopping for the holidays.